Dunning-Kruger Effect is Rampant Today
"Perception of truth frequently differs significantly from real truth. Moreover, given sufficient promotion and advertising, perception of truth becomes truth. Its promotion by commercial enterprise Is called marketing, commonly used in the furtherance of political, commercial, or various opportunistic ends by its promoters. When promotion is done by government or political groups, it’s called spin or propaganda. Pseudoscience is science fiction. …Unfortunately, neither computers nor human fact-checkers can, in general, tell fact from fiction. Or science from science fiction or from pseudoscience." - Dr. John F. Clauser, Quantum Physicist and Nobel Prize winner
If the above statement resonates with you then you have to at least a) believe in objective truth and b) trust subject matter experts, authorities in a given field (given that they are devoid of any personal agenda). If you don’t have these two, then the rest of this paper will have no meaning to you, and you should go do something else. What Dr. John Clauser is talking about is Legitimization by Paralogy. Legitimization by Paralogy means consensus in a lie until everyone believes it. It’s a fancy way of saying, if you are a good liar and you lie often enough, and enough people believe you, then the lie becomes reality and reality becomes a lie. We are inundated by ‘fake news’ from media channels, printed, televised or digital, and people are happy to proliferate it without bothering to verify anything. We may be used to lies coming from politicians, but we now live in a world where we are swimming in an ocean of (mis)information, most of it slanted, untrue, or downright false.
Oxford Dictionary selected “post-truth” as 2016 Word of the Year. According to Oxford Dictionary, post-truth means “relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief”. Sadly, we are progressing from postmodernism to a post-truth world view. Post-truth accepts that there is an objective truth out there, but we may or may not choose to embrace it, depending on what is convenient at the time. Where we could combat postmodernism by showing that you cannot have a multitude of truths, post-truth is harder to combat because people are willing to lie or tell the truth depending on what is best for them.
Objective truth is what Dr. Clauser is referring to when he says ‘…real truth’. Objective truth refers to the concept that certain statements or facts are true independently of anyone's beliefs, opinions, or perceptions. It exists independently of individual perspectives and remains consistent regardless of who observes or experiences it. Objective truths are considered universal and do not change based on cultural, societal, or personal biases. In other words, an objective truth is something that is objectively verifiable and can be supported by evidence, logic, and observation. It is not influenced by emotions, preferences, or subjective interpretations. Scientific principles and mathematical truths are often considered objective because they are based on empirical evidence and logical reasoning, leading to consistent and repeatable results.
Ayn Rand’s philosophy, Objectivism, holds that reality exists as an objective absolute, facts are facts, independent of man’s feelings, wishes, hopes or fears. At a macro level this is true, there are objective truths and objective truths are true whether you know them or not, understand them or not, like them or not. In contrast to objective truth, subjective truth refers to statements that are dependent on personal feelings, experiences, or beliefs. These truths can vary from person to person and may not be universally valid or applicable.
Objective truth plays a crucial role in various fields, including science, mathematics, history, and philosophy, as it forms the foundation for reliable knowledge and understanding of the world. By seeking and acknowledging objective truths, we can strive for a more accurate and coherent understanding of reality. Can we profess to know what reality is completely and 100%? No, we cannot, but we can have a better and better approximation as we gather more and more true facts. We will just take Politics, Science and Religion as examples in a little bit.
Dr John Clauser is an scientist in the field of Quantum Physics, not only has he dedicated his life to the study of it he is also a Nobel Prize Winner for experimental proof that nonlocal quantum entanglement is real. This has huge implications for quantum computing, and unbreakable cryptography. Just because very few people even know what quantum entanglement is, that does not mean it is not real, it is a phenomenon that has been verified many times over the last few decades and finally Dr. Clauser has experimental proof of its existence that can be verified and repeated by other scientists. He is a subject matter expert on quantum entanglement.
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge” Stephen Hawking
Social Media has had a very deleterious effect on truth. A large majority of content providers on the internet are not experts/authorities in anything. Most just repost content from prominent bloggers and news reporters. Most news reporters are no longer reporters but are news commentators or opinion editorials. In large part this gives rise to conspiracy theories, and the social media algorithms make sure that all the content you consume reinforces that belief. There may be some conspiracies out there, but the sad truth is that most of what people believe to be conspiracy is in fact a healthy dose of ineptitude, stupidity, ignorance, and a pinch of bad luck.
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias that refers to the tendency of individuals with limited knowledge or low ability in a particular area to overestimate their competence in that area or field. In simpler terms, it describes how people who lack expertise in a subject often mistakenly believe they are much more skilled or knowledgeable than they actually are. At the same time, those who possess higher expertise tend to underestimate their own abilities relative to others.
The effect was named after David Dunning and Justin Kruger, two social psychologists who first described it in their research paper published in 1999. Their studies revealed that incompetent individuals often fail to recognize their lack of competence because they lack the expertise needed to assess their own abilities accurately. This leads to what is often described as a "double burden" of ignorance: not only do these individuals lack the skills needed for a task, but they also lack the ability to recognize their inadequacies.
On the other hand, highly competent individuals may underestimate their abilities because they assume that others have a similar level of expertise. They might find the task relatively easy due to their high level of competence, leading them to believe that it is not a particularly challenging task for anyone else. The Dunning-Kruger effect has several implications in real-life situations:
1. Unwarranted confidence: People with low abilities or knowledge may feel overly confident in their skills, leading them to make mistakes or poor decisions.
2. Impostor syndrome: Highly competent individuals may doubt their abilities and feel like "impostors" despite their significant expertise.
3. Decision-making biases: The effect can influence judgments and decision-making processes, both in personal and professional contexts.
4. Skill development: Recognizing one's lack of competence is crucial for personal growth and learning. The Dunning-Kruger effect can hinder people from recognizing areas they need to improve upon.
Overall, understanding the Dunning-Kruger effect can remind us of the importance of humility and self-awareness in assessing our own abilities and making sound judgments. It also highlights the significance of seeking feedback and learning from others to develop our skills and knowledge. The Dunning-Kruger effect is a major contributor to belief in conspiracy theories. But it also has a deleterious effect in everyday life as we are naturally surrounded by Politics, Religion, and Science. It is natural to think that many modern-day topics are very complex and not everyone is an expert at everything. However, the internet and social media with its increase in self-proclaimed ‘experts’ (legions of want-to-be influencers) has given rise to conspiracy theories. Even the most absurd things can be proven when taken out of context. Millennials and Gen Z (teenagers) are especially susceptible to this because generally speaking, they have a short attention span, and don’t have the patience to study or think deeply about anything (think one minute Tik Tok videos to become an expert on anything).
Politics today is often mired in a Geopolitical web of intricate affairs, and unless you are a political scientist in constant touch with world news from multiple trusted sources, it is very difficult to understand what is happening in the world or even the US today in the world of politics. It is very convenient for politicians and the news media to exploit this by giving “one sided” or “slanted” representation of what is happening with the express intent to mislead the public. This adds to the general mistrust of both politicians, and the media.
Geopolitics is too complex for the average individual to comprehend because it involves a sophisticated interplay of geography, history, economics, culture, and international relations. Understanding geopolitical dynamics requires expertise in multiple disciplines and a deep knowledge of global affairs. The intricate web of alliances, conflicts, and power struggles between nations makes it challenging for individuals without specialized training to grasp the intricacies and implications of geopolitical events. As a result, the ever-changing geopolitical landscape often remains beyond the scope of casual understanding, necessitating expert analysis for meaningful comprehension. Most people know next to nothing about Ukraine, Gaza, Israel, Judaism, Islam, but yet they are ready to march, protest, defend, attack like they know something.
Modern Science is becoming more and more complex, to the point that all scientific fields require specialization. It is impossible for anyone person to understand enough about any given field without considerable study and research. Most people for example know next to nothing about ‘Climate Change’, or COVID-19 yet they have very formed opinions on it, mostly based on the constant barrage of news media surrounding the topic.
Modern science is too complex for the average individual to comprehend because it encompasses a vast array of specialized fields, cutting-edge technologies, and intricate theories. As scientific knowledge expands rapidly, it becomes increasingly challenging for non-experts to keep up with the latest developments. Moreover, scientific concepts often rely on complex and abstract mathematics and technical jargon, making it difficult for lay people to fully grasp the underlying principles. To understand modern science comprehensively, one needs years of education and training in specific disciplines, highlighting the necessity of expert scientists who can translate and communicate these complexities to the broader public. However, there are many pseudo scientists or con artists that lead people to serious mistrust in authority and eventually in science altogether.
For example, there is such a thing known as ‘Pop Science’, this is the popularization of science by many popular personalities, from Stephen Hawkins to Bill Nye. In other words, from the reliable to the not so reliable scientist. How is a lay person supposed to know what is reliable science and what isn’t? What passes for Pop Science in published media, TV, and digital media is mostly unreliable. It is sensationalized, trivialized, dumbed down science. This is all that is available to the lay person of the complex science that has been going on for centuries.
Religion is another area where most people not only don’t know much about, but they also don’t care to inquire about either. Religion is often too complex for the average individual to comprehend because it involves belief systems (worldviews), histories, philosophies, and cultural influences (geographies and mythologies) that span millennia. With countless religions and their various interpretations, practices, and rituals, understanding religious complexities requires extensive study and cultural awareness. Additionally, religious concepts often address profound existential questions, morality, and spirituality, which can be intellectually and emotionally challenging for individuals to fully grasp without a deeper level of engagement and reflection. As a result, the rich and multifaceted nature of religion makes it a complex topic that benefits from respectful dialogue and continuous exploration to foster greater understanding.
Questioning the various faiths is not a bad thing, I would posit that it is a healthy thing to do. Asking questions is always a good thing. However, one should never ridicule something unless one is a bonified expert on the subject matter. I have found that people that ridicule the Bible for example, have never read it in its entirety let alone studied it in depth. To understand the Bible (or any other religious book), one needs to know the history, geography, philosophy, and mythology of the area, in this case the middle east, especially Babylonian, Persian, Greek, and Egyptian. Again, we find there are many pseudo preachers or con artists that lead people to serious mistrust in authority and eventually in religion altogether.
And so, the Dunning-Kruger effect, sometimes coupled with an unbelief in subjective truth and a mistrust in subject matter experts can have a devastating effect on one’s grasp of reality and conspiracy theories abound. Not to say that all conspiracy theories are false, as most of them have at least a kernel of truth to them, and some eventually become the accepted truth over time. Also, not to say that all subject matter experts are neutral, non-biased, and have no selfish agenda to impart on the unsuspecting public. We are currently moving from a postmodernist world (truth is relative) to a post-truth world (truth or falsehood depending on convenience).
However, one should look at the world through a critical thinking lens (if at all possible). Critical thinking refers to the process of analyzing, evaluating, and synthesizing information in order to make reasoned judgments and decisions. It involves using skills such as logic, reasoning, and reflection to assess information, identify biases, and develop informed opinions. To be a critical thinker at a minimum you must have these seven skills:
1. Don’t assume.
2. Don’t be judgmental.
3. Be aware of other people’s biases.
4. Be aware of your own biases.
5. Gather facts from multiple trusted sources.
6. Present your arguments in a logical manner.
7. Avoid logical fallacies.
Overall, critical thinking is a valuable skill that can benefit individuals in both their personal and professional lives. While critical thinking is an essential skill, critical thinkers have historically been in short supply. Being a critical thinker can be challenging for several reasons:
1. Cognitive biases: Our brains are wired to take shortcuts and make quick decisions based on limited information. As a result, we may be prone to cognitive biases that can lead us to overlook important information or make flawed judgments.
2. Lack of training: Critical thinking is a skill that must be developed over time. Unfortunately, many educational systems do not explicitly teach critical thinking, leaving individuals without the necessary tools to engage in this type of thinking.
3. Emotional attachment to beliefs: We may be emotionally attached to certain beliefs or ideas, which can make it difficult to objectively evaluate information that challenges those beliefs. Facts rarely change people’s minds. As a result of the well-documented confirmation bias, we tend to undervalue evidence that contradicts our beliefs and overvalue evidence that confirms them. We filter out inconvenient truths and arguments on the opposing side. As a result, our opinions solidify, and it becomes increasingly harder to disrupt established patterns of thinking.
We believe in alternative facts if they support our pre-existing beliefs. Mediocre to incompetent politicians remain in office because we interpret the evidence to confirm our initial voting for them. News media continues to preach the ills of ‘Climate Change’ despite emerging research to the contrary. People continue to wear masks when outdoors and alone in their cars despite emerging research to the contrary.
4. Information overload: In today's digital age, we are inundated with information from various sources. We are swimming in a sea of (mis)information. Sorting through this information and determining what is reliable and relevant can be a daunting task.
5. Time constraints: Critical thinking requires time and effort, which can be challenging to prioritize in a fast-paced society where there are constant demands on our attention.
Despite these challenges, it is possible to develop critical thinking skills with practice and a willingness to engage with information in a thoughtful and reflective way. The full summation of human life is the knowledge that man is educated by fact, ennobled by wisdom, and saved or justified by religious faith. Physical certainty consists in the logic of science; moral certainty, in the wisdom of philosophy; spiritual certainty, in the truth of genuine religious experience.